A Bleak Future?

OXCGN Discusses Cloud Gaming

by exterminat and dkpatriarch

©2011 Nicholas Laborde and David Hilton

We at OXCGN are known for well thought out, opinionated pieces.

Sometimes, this converges into an intellectual battle between two of us; sometimes it gets heated enough to turn into a debate.

Other times, we agree too much and it is a discussion.

Recently, I was conversing with OXCGN’s second in command David Hilton about multiplatform gaming.

Shortly after, we discussed something that might encompass a very bleak, very close future: cloud gaming.

For those unfamiliar, cloud computing is where all of your data is stored on a central network of sorts and most of the power involved to run your applications can be outsourced to these computers.

It’s a technology slowly being embraced, but the question ensues: is it the way forward for gaming?

The Great Debate

Nicholas Laborde:

So, here we are again with another big issue in the world of gaming, and this time, it’s a tricky one: cloud-based gaming.

To start, I think cloud computing is a fascinating concept, and a clear showcase of what our technology is capable of.

No longer will your save files get lost in a corrupted harddrive. No longer will you even need much of a hard drive!

It’s a great concept, and I’m all for it… so long as I can stay around a trusty internet provider.

What do you think, David?

David Hilton:

In fact no longer will you really need much of a powerful console either. Everything can be processed on some central computer somewhere in India or something.

In fact you don’t need a Sony or an Xbox or a Nintendo: just a box that can process information and a controller (if even that). Why bother having any differences when it’s all about software under clouding?

While I like the idea of having saves backed up somewhere, having all our details stored in some central database and a dependence on online services has only just recently been shown to have flaws. These systems are open to being targeted by hackers and no security system will keep them out for long.

That means that gaming under a cloud-only system could effectively be shut down until it can be restored and protected. You can imagine the huge amount of resources it will now take for companies like Microsoft and Sony to protect themselves. Money that could otherwise be invested in new game experiences.

At least during the recent PSN shutdown you could still play games on disc that weren’t online-dependant. On a system like OnLive you’d not be able to game at all if it was down.

NL:

See, that’s one of the downfalls of cloud computing; you don’t own any of it.

For the sake of continuity, I’ll give an example you may or may not be familiar with: Steam.

You may not realize that you don’t per se “own” your Steam games; you simply lease them from Valve for all eternity… or until you get banned. So, you really own nothing and they can get into your stuff at any time.

This is another part of cloud computing that can be both really good and really bad. Say I’m a journalist, and I write a bad review, what if they know my account …

Realistically, I desire to be in control of things I purchase; if my entire game is stored on a server somewhere that I have no control over, I honestly don’t know how I could feel safe ever enjoying it. Knowing that at any second, if the service goes down, bam, I can’t access it.

DH:

The offset of not having a physical copy that you own is that you get the end product cheaper, meaning you can play more games for less.

Not having to have an upgraded computer or buying a new more powerful console every few years is also attractive, especially in our current financial climate.

Plus you will likely get access to ALL games, and exclusives will cease to exist if powerful consoles die off.

However, it depends on the marketing model: if you are paying a subscription fee, like we do with Pay-TV, and you only want or can play a couple of games from the service, why would you want to pay a monthly subscription that you may be locked into for that?

You can bet that just with Pay TV that you will likely have to pay for more than you really want (unless you are a huge gamer with lots of time). If there are no hard copies, and no retail stores, there is no competition and prices can be fixed at whatever.

Even if the service offers a ‘pay per play’ system, it will likely be almost as high as it would have been if there still was a retail version around, like the PSP GO games, which often ended up MORE expensive than retail copies.

This then also becomes an issue for the game-makers. A game that was selling at AUD$100 at the endpoint suddenly is part of a AUD$20 a month subscription service offering, along with a heap of other games.

What will be their take? Will games suddenly de-volve and just become like apps instead of big budget AAA titles, because publishers and developers can’t make the amount they were before? It’s not as if they sell a million copies or even apps and make money- it goes into a subscription service that all gamers can access with their monthly fee. I see potential problems there.

It’s not like an online casino, though I suspect that it would indeed try to suck as much cash from us as it can.

NL:

It’s all about money.

Cloud computing is something that’s appealing to the current world and market because of the economic crisis and the aftermath of it, so it certainly is an interesting concept to explore.

The biggest thing here (and let me get out the tinfoil hat) is the death of physical media, which scares me to death. You won’t need any physical devices, most likely, in a cloud-based future; just load up your account and bam, there you go. You’re ready to start that RPG or kick some ass in your favorite shooter.

Which, in terms of multiplayer, players could benefit from as it would be all dedicated servers, but people like me that thoroughly enjoy PC gaming will be angry that it will kill lack of player support; most likely, no mods, no free content, probably the inability to have your own servers, no custom options.

It’s as if someone who was a PC gamer all their life was asked to play a game like Fallout: New Vegas or even the upcoming Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim on a console.

You simply couldn’t do it because you’re losing so much, among other options!

So in terms of gameplay, it would majorly be affected. And oh boy, I hate envisioning this future, as the Collector’s Edition will completely die off! Not only would they become obsolete, but they’d pretty much fade away… nothing cool to line your shelves with!

DH:

The funny thing is that something that looks like it could be ‘cheaper’ might actually not end up being so at all.

As you put it, right now we can choose which platform, which game, and which price we are happy with. We can wait and get a used copy, or we can pre-order at full price and get incentives, or we can get a Collector’s Edition with extras. With a cloud system we have no choices: we pay what the service demands and we get what’s on the service.

While I was initially excited by the idea, I now see it as a Trojan’s Horse.

We get sucked into this digital online world with cheap boxes and cheap subscriptions while we watch consoles and hard media die off.

Then we are at the whim of the cloud system. As long as companies can absorb the initial costs (and they will be HUGE, see quote below) of such a system, they will long term be able to dictate the market.

The publishers and developers will fall into line or not have a showcase for their game or profits. The consumer will fall into line, because there is nothing else.

Once conditioned a certain way, we don’t tend to go back. I forget I can sweep my deck instead of waiting for the leaf blower to charge up to blow the greenery off! We can wash and dry dishes without a dishwasher. If someone later decided to compete with cloud systems with a more expensive but hands-on system, would the mainstream go back? I doubt it.

This may sound a bit alarmist, but they will have to make money somehow; it’s not going to be a public service.

There are also a lot of problems with setting up the system world-wide.

Daniel A. Bennett, in his article on Info Press says:

“Modern games are enormous, sprawling efforts that take up huge amounts of CPU; to be able to play these games seamlessly from half way across the world is going to need a remarkably solid Internet connection.

And that’s just for the customer. The computing power required on the part of the company is potentially enormous with a market that numbers at least 40 million potential gamers and probably a lot more.

The internet is simply not up to it right now.

The costs to get it so is already causing huge debate here in Australia with the Opposition calling for the National Broadband Network to be scrapped to save funds.

Here in Australia internet costs are way higher than in the U.S. for a service that isn’t nearly as good. Most plans are capped at certain download sizes. The service is filled with latency issues, and added internet costs for an online-only gaming system would have to be considered.

I can imagine many other world nations would have worse problems. Will gaming only be for Americans and Japanese, or countries with the most powerful internet systems?

What if internet providers, seeing that people can no longer get by without it, decide to eliminate all-inclusive uncapped plans? Then Cloud Gaming suddenly doesn’t seem as cheap as first advertised. But then it’s too late.

NL:

You point out a lot, and hit all the nails on the head perfectly.

It’s just a system that we’re not ready for, but that we may simply embrace because it’s new.

And the internet especially. I have a measly 3 MB connection, but I’m not complaining; I’m used to it.

In America, internet speed is just how good ol’ Uncle Sam goes about things: in a capitalist manner. You get what you pay for. Probably very different in the land down under, as you just have overall crappy internet!

We’re facing a problem in our industry, and we may force this new “solution” into place to give a false illusion of hope.

We’re both men of history, David. As we both certainly know, history repeats itself.

For nearly as long as gaming has been around each generation has lasted roughly five years before new consoles flooded in.

We’re in the sixth full year, and no new consoles are on the horizon (the Wii U isn’t even much of a new console and certainly can’t come to define the ‘next’ generation).

Some even attribute the blandness of games to the simply hurdles technology cannot overcome until the next generation.

DH:

Yes, well my recent history tells me that online multiplayer gaming heralded the near-death state offline split-screen gaming has become.

Is it better? Well yes when you play team deathmatch with your friends who are all over the place on your favourite game. But it comes nowhere near to the experiences I’ve had with friends and family in the same room in a party-like atmosphere playing split-screen together. The Wii made its bread and butter from this old school gaming style.

Is Cloud Gaming progress? And if it is, will it be as good as we think it will be?

The concept is positive on the whole but while I love that game saves can be stored somewhere else now and the possibility of cheaper gaming, I am not convinced it should be our gaming future. I want to research, then seek out, and find my physical prize. Not just download it like an app and rely on access to the internet at all times.

It may not be necessary for game industry survival and advancement at all and instead just make it, well, less fun. What do you conclude, Nicholas?

NL:

I conclude that cloud computing is a fantastic concept that will definitely change the face of computing, but gaming simply is not ready for it yet.

It’s to be saved for another generation. We certainly don’t need it to go the way of the Dreamcast and completely ruin the industry.

Sure, it looks appealing, but by giving in to all of this (donning the tinfoil hat again) we allow the corporations to be in control, and as you stated, David, it will slowly kill off retail and there will be major price fixing.

I enjoy building my collection of physical copies and getting collector’s editions that make my friends jealous; It [cloud gaming] is not a future I want to live in, to end this in the simplest of statements.

Remove your tinfoil hats on the way out

What do you think?

Is cloud computing the perilous path that gaming should pursue?

Will it be more good than bad?

Or will it give corporations even more power in a day and age where they eclipse the federal government?

©2011 Nicholas Laborde and David Hilton

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Filed under: Blogbanter, Console gaming, Editorial, GameBanter, Gamer's Debate, Oxcgn Special feature, Xbox 360 Tagged: | Cloud computing, Cloud gaming, Microsoft, nintendo, OnLive, PlayStation Network, Sony, Xbox